I am a strong believer that sales numbers indicate trends for the future. Yes, some powertrains have increased sales and some have lost sales – but the impact of those gains and losses on the overall market are not as extreme as one might initially conclude. It is only by combining the two data presentations that we can get a more complete picture of what is going on. The change in units sold by powertrain in the grand context of the total market size is not very impressive – changes are barely perceptible.īut this type of analysis also can result in misleading conclusions that the traditional powertrains are not under any pressure at all. When looking at the data in this format, the information is not as shocking. The next chart shows the units sold by powertrain in each year. This should not be dismissed, but it is critical to also consider this information in the context of the market size. Regardless, it is impressive that, despite what happened to total sales over this time frame, BEVs and PHEVs continued to record sales increases. Also, I use the word seemingly because the sales drops in 2017 equated to 2.8% for gasoline ICE and 1.9% for total sales – which would not even register if plotted on a percent change graph. But keep in mind, that their seemingly significant drop in 2017 coincided with a similar drop in total LDVs sold. From this, it would look like gasoline ICE vehicles are getting their clocks cleaned. This chart shows the unit sales change year over year since 2015 for each powertrain. Since 2015, gasoline ICE and hybrid sales have declined while other powertrains have increased sales, but the magnitude of the change in sales can be misleading. Let’s take a look at what has happened in the U.S. Which means there is room for diversification of powertrains without a one for one replacement rate. will increase from about 244 million in 2018 to nearly 265 million in 2035 – an increase of 8.6%. Energy Information Administration projects that the fleet of registered light duty vehicles in the U.S. The size of the market is not static and to extrapolate one piece of information to reach broad conclusions would be misleading. The laws of physics and the lyrics of Lightning Crashes cannot be applied to the vehicles market – just because there are more EVs being sold does not mean that an equal number of ICE-powered vehicles are not being sold. But if this story were to be extrapolated and applied to every birth and death (similar to how small bits of data are extrapolated to apply to the global markets), it would infer that for every birth there would be a death and the global population would never grow. Alternative Songs Chart in February 1995. This is a great song, hitting number one on Billboard’s U.S. The law of conservation of mass states that “in a closed or isolated system, matter cannot be created or destroyed – it can change forms but is conserved.” But the vehicle market is not a “closed or isolated system” – the total number of vehicles sold in 2018 increased modestly, which means that the vehicle industry is not controlled by this law of physics.Īnd then there is the hit song by Live, Lightning Crashes, which tells the story of a baby born at the same time an old woman dies and at that moment there was some sort of transition of “confusion” between the two:īefore the doctor can even close the door But, if EVs are gaining traction does that mean that legacy powertrains powered by internal combustion engines (ICE) are dying at an equal rate? Clearly, momentum continues to grow for this technology. And 2018 saw more announcements from automobile manufacturers about their commitment to electrified powertrains. Battery electric (BEV) and plug in hybrid vehicles (PHEV) combined for more than 330,000 vehicles sold, which represents a growth of 79% over 2017. Last year was another banner year for sales of electrified vehicles.
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